APNX Finding Winners among low priced stocks?

6/22 It is time to reevaluate my choice of APNX as an investment I made.  My original belief was this companies stock was under value.   Based on their profitability, a government contract and reduction of expenses, they were worth more than the $.12 a share I paid.  Since my investment, APNX has dropped to as low as $.08 and not gone above $.11 a share.   Is APNX still a good investment?

In order to analyze this honestly, I decided to read a book by Richard L Evans, Finding Winners among Depressed and Low Priced Stocks. APNX is a low priced stock. It is depressed.   Is it a winner?

The criteria Richard Evans discusses in his book offers factual accounts of low priced and depressed stocks breaking out of their low values to offer profits to investors.   One criteria he mentions is breakouts occur most often when a company has a book value of 1 or less.  APNX has a book value of .5.   Meets this criteria.  

Another point he made based on a study found in the Journal of Finance July 1985 , titled "Does the stock market over react" notes "Investing in down and out stocks could be bumpier than investing in winners.   This same report continues to note, over time losers will outperform the winners.  

He mentions the anatomy of a winner includes momentum, increased earnings, current stock price is within 15% of its two year high, and shows increasing relative strength.  APNX current financials show increased earnings, a variable of momentum.  Is within 15% of its 2 year high of $.55 with the potential to breakout.  

This book offers more technical information than I can provide in my short hub about APNX.  My goal is to update the book's material with analysis of stocks I find along with additional hubs on this topic.  Join me in this great adventure.  Please don't invest based on my recommendation.   Nothing is guaranteed.  It is always best to invest based on your opinion and investment available.  

APNX is currently offering me a bumpier than normal ride with my investment.   Over time could this loser outperform a winner?   I continue to believe it will.   Nothing has changed with what I currently know about APNX.  APNX isn't overpriced based on current market conditions.  

 

4/24 update. This week investors were looking to buy APNX. The stock moved off its large spread as investors realized APNX's value and began buying. Few shares were traded over the last few weeks. Many days activity was none, Zero 0 . Then on Wednesday the stock began to move off it's bid price upward a few 1/10 of a cent to Fridays jump of $.035 a share. I am not an expert, but believe this is good news for those of us who held on to APNX shares. Remember, few shares are available for traders. As interest increases, the stock price will climb. It could be now. We will see. I am holding on. I bought in at $.12 a share.

Good luck to all investors.

APNX market maker creates a spread to trigger selling, Don't

4/1 When you look at the ask and bid price you will see the bid price is currently around $.091 a share with the ask price around $.14. These two prices are what the market maker is asking and bidding at the same time. If they can get someone to sell at $.091 and buy back at $.14 they make around $.04 a share. 5000 shares will earn them an easy $200.00. They hope investors will see this spread and want to sell stock on the negative news. Don't, This stock APNX is worth more. Volume has been near 0 the last few days. Investors who own don't want to sell. The spread is causing investors to sit on the fence, wait for the market maker to catch up. This market maker is patient not changing the spread in the last few days. What is very important is we investors have to be more patient. I have half my shares listed for $.24 a share. I firmly believe APNX is worth this and more. I borrowed money to invest so want to pay it back, my reason to sell 1/2 my shares I am holding the rest. The value is there....

3/22 Sellers convinced APNX is worth more holding for higher prices, buyers bidding higher, paying the higher price. Today, when the market opened, one seller listed the stock at $.18 a share, considerably higher than the opening bid of $.11. As the morning developed the sell price dropped to $.14, bid remained at $.11. The strength was evident in an actual transaction of 7500 shares at $.14. Remember this stock has had several days of no volume as sellers realize what they have, hold on for a higher price. Notice, I said higher price, not profits. Profit taking causes the stock to drop. What is important to know is profitable companies with $20 million in sales when discovered will develop interest that will create a demand for the shares with higher stock prices being realized. At some point the stock will reach a new much higher trading range. Previous trading range prior to late 2008 was in the neighborhood of $.30-$.40 a share. The stock dropped the end of 2008 into 2009 and 2010 to a trading range of $.10 to $.20 a share. I believe the drop was a result of market conditions not the stock. This company has remained profitable with a new USPS contract good for another 5 years. Profits have been good as management controls expenses keeping them to a minimum. Management practices good stewardship of their resources. As the market recovers, stocks that represent a profitable company with good revenues offer great growth potential for investors. I have studied profitable stocks knowing this company is undervalued. There are many many penny stocks, with no profits, revenues under 20 million, with stock prices above $.50 a share. I believe APNX continues to offer investors opportunity for growth. I encourage you to look at the company and only invest if you believe as I do. I have actually bought my shares. No one is paying me to promote this company. i do it because of my unfailing belief in both investors, the market and this company.

3/19 APNX released its latest financials on Friday 3/19. Sales increased to just over 5 million dollars for the last quarter ending 12/31/09. Profit continues to be positive over $400 thousand with over $364,000 applicable to common shares. Two positive quarters of both revenue and profit. The stock price is a great buy at this level. The stock trading range should be higher based on the current information. Read the financials and then make a decision. I continue to be excited about this company. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=apnx.ob

St Patricks Day, a day we celebrate the Irish and the color Green. For investors in APNX, the green celebration continues with increased interest in APNX shares at the asking price. This establishes strength in the current price. Those who have shares to trade, at this point can ask for more money per share. Remember 80% of the shares are held by the owner. This leaves about 6.4 million free floating shares investors can buy. This is a rough estimate based on 32 million shares issued 20% of those in investors hands. For a profitable company, the value of the shares available to investors increases. Increased volume for rare shares increases the stocks value. I consider the shares are rare as a result of amount of shares available to the public. Should the owner of the company announce a sale of stock, it requires notification to the investors. At that time, depending on how many the owner is selling, could mean it is time to sell, not buy. That time has not arrived as I see the owner committed to building the company and its value. A good indication of this is shown by the conservative salarys of the owners. Profits show they are committed to building the business and maintaining the profitability they are proud to note has been consistent through out their existence. Today is APNX's green celebration day as its stock price solidifies before moving higher.

To see further leprochan Green, it is important to understand what may have triggered the price tumble. My review follows as an opinion only. The stock has tumbled since its high of $.35 a share. It could have been caused by the loss of the Hawaii contract, 18% of APNX business. Yet the company remained optimistic, continued to do what is important to earn a profit. Sales continue to be strong in the market they do have in spite of an unhealthy economy. The news is good. Read the news releases, the financial reports released by Alpine. You'll discover the potential is good, What happened to the price as it dropped through the end of January 2010. Did investors lose confidence? I don't believe so. The numbers warrant a higher trading range. In my unprofessional opinion, sales, profits and continued profitability of APNX for the near term, 3-4 years based on their Government contract, raised the value of the stock. Only the market will determine the higher range where it will settle. Once identified, good news will drive it higher, bad news lower. No news supports the higher trading range. Why? This company has remained profitable in spite of the economy and business it is in. Sales remain strong, Management is committed to building the company as it looks for new sources of revenue. I am excited and will hang on to the shares I own. Profit potential is good. Remember, I encourage every investor to think for themselves when they invest. It is important to know what you invest in and the potential for risk which with stocks can be the entire investment. Learn as much as you can about the company. Then with a clear mind, invest.